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TREND ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION IN HATAY

Abstract

Author(s): Muhammet TOPUZ, Murat KARABULUT, Hüseyin KORKMAZ

The efforts for understanding climate and its trend which affect human life directly or indirectly, has been moved to a different dimension depend on advances and increasing in knowledge and technology. Turkey has a delicate position of climate change could occur in the short and long term. Therefore, the responses of the regions to climate change are formed by the ratio of this sensitivity. In this study monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall meteorological data (1970-2011) of Hatay, Antakya, Dörtyol, Samanda? and Iskenderun were used. The trend of precipitation has tried to understand by using Coefficient of variation, Mann- Kendall Trend Analysis and Linear Regression models. According to the results, the least annually variation of precipitation occurred in Iskenderun (16%), on the other hand the highest variation occurred in Antakya (26%). The results of Trend analysis show that all stations annual precipitation values increased. As a result of trend analysis has been observed that is an increase of precipitation values of all stations. However, all stations have been found insignificant at the 95% confidence interval except Iskenderun’s station. According to the linear trend analysis results, the maximum increase in annual precipitation occurred in Samanda? (19, 4%) and the least occurred in Antakya (5, 15%). 

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