?THE FUTURE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION?

Abstract

Author(s): Muhammet BAHADIR

The purpose of this study was to analyze the temperature and precipitation trend changes in the Mediterranean Region with the Growth Curve and ARIMA model which are statistical methods used widely in determining future forecasts and trends. According to the trend analysis results, all stations revealed an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation. A strong increase in temperature was determined for Antalya, Kahramanmara and Isparta, while an increasing trend was determined for Adana, Mula and Hatay. The analyses carried out for precipitation revealed a strong decrease for Antalya, Adana, Mula and Hatay, while a decreasing trend was determined for Kahramanmara and Isparta. A region wide 15 year period (2010-2025) forecast for temperature showed an increasing trend between 0.4 and 0.7 °C, whereas the most significant decrease in precipitation determined for Mula was 78.1 mm and the lowest decrease foreseen for Kahramanmara was 22 mm. The probability that the regional climate will become influenced by a more arid and hot climate within the next 15 years is high. In this context, the coastal parts of the region will be more effected by these changes.

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