THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM REVENUES ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH: A PERIODIC AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON TURKEY (1965-2016)

Abstract

Author(s): mer YALINKAYA Kerem KARABULUT

In this study, the effects of tourism revenues on economic growth are examined periodically in the Turkish economy, where the tourism sector has become increasingly important in parallel with developments around the world in 1965 and together with the opening policies since the 1980s. In the study from this direction, the effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the Turkish economy are investigated economically in the context of a new generation time series analysis for the periods 1965-2016 and 1980-2016. As a result of the study, it has been determined that the effects of tourism revenues on economic growth in the Turkish economy between 1965-2016 and 1980-2016 are positive direction/statistically significant and that the magnitude of this positive direction effect is much higher in 1980-2016 period when the opening policies has been followed. However, in the study it was concluded that there was no causality relationship between tourism revenues and economic growth in the period of 1965-2016 and that there was a positive and bi-directional causality relationship in the period of 1980-2016. These results show that the magnitude of this effect is much higher in the 1980-2016 period when the tourism sector has undergone important developments and the opening policies has been followed while tourism revenues have an important effect on economic growth in the period of 1965-2016 and 1980-2016 in the Turkish economy.

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