THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON FOREIGN TRADE: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY?S RESEARCH FOR NEW EXTERNAL TRADE MARKET ON THE SELECTED COUNTRY GROUPS

Abstract

Author(s): Mesut YCESAN Mustafa TORUN Serdar KURT

The degree of integration of the Turkish economy with global economic system is increasing day by day. In this context, Turkey has set its goal to increase total exports profit to 500 billion dollars in 2023, the 100th anniversary of the Republic. Undoubtedly, in order to increase the export figures of $ 142.6 billion in 2016 to $ 500 billion over seven years, Turkey is going to need to increase its share in existing foreign trade markets and speed up research for new foreign trade markets. The aim of study is to reveal the reactions of country groups, which are targeted by Turkey’s research for new external trade market, against exchange rate alterations. The target and priority country groups, which has a directive effect for Turkish exporters have been determined by Ministry of Economy. For this purpose, the targeted countries which were determined by various criteria of ministry have been categorized according to their external trade as exports and imports and these models were evaluates by using panel data analysis. This categorized system enabled to analyze separately the effects of changes in exchange rates on export and imports of the countries. According to the results, exchange rate alterations does not seem to have an effect on exports of the countries included in the analysis. However, it is detected a statistically significant and negative correlation between the import rate and exchange rate alterations of stated country group. Increase on exchange rate fluctuations decreases the import rate of the stated countries.

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