TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TREND ANALYSIS IN SOUTHEAST ANATOLIA PROJECT (GAP) AREA

Abstract

Author(s): Muhammet BAHADIR

The ARIMA model was used to study the potential future changes in temperature and precipitation in the Southeast Anatolia Project area. In world literature, the ARIMA model is recognized for being a method providing the best results regarding trend analysis by rendering non-stationary temporal sequences to stationary sequences. Appropriate values for the foreseeable climate scenarios for Turkey have been obtained as a result of the analysis. Long term temperature and precipitation data were available for 8 out of the 9 provinces which is why the analysis work was carried out for 8 provinces. Analysis results show that the temperature trend for Batman, Gaziantep, Siirt and anl?urfa to be a major increase in temperature while the outlook for Diyarbak?r appears to be a steadfast trend. Studies carried out regarding precipitation reveal that Mardin will experience a major decrease, while precipitation in Ad?yaman, Batman, Diyarbak?r, Kilis, Siirt and anl?urfa will decrease and a steadfast outlook is valid for Gaziantep. According to the temperature analysis, an increase of 0,3 and 0,6 °C is foreseen for the study area within a 15 year interval (2009-2023). While the overall trend for precipitation is to decrease, the foreseen decrement values are between 15 mm and 100 mm. These values correspond with the values foreseen for Turkey and particularly for our southern regions

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