QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: DETERMINING UNIVERSITY RISK MITIGATION AND CONTROL MECHANISMS

Abstract

Author(s): Anass BAYAGA, Xoliswa MTOSE

The paper seeks to examine adequacy of risk mitigation mechanisms by using methodologies derived from quantitative risk analysis in a University context. A questionnaire and an interview schedule were administered. The researchers used ‘risk modal’ responses model for the evaluation of the adequacy of risk mitigation. Furthermore, the researchers incorporated expert judgements, binomial distribution model and one wayrepeated measure ANOVA into the risk mitigation analysis. The first category of findings revealed that (1) the University has no adequate control mechanisms to mitigate risk (2) the University does not take adequate account of key risks identified by key stakeholders and thirdly (3) the University’s overall approach to risk management, as assessed for one-academic year is not adequate for its strategic objectives. The second category from general perspective suggested there was a significant relationship between individual key risks been assigned to appropriate managers and risk mitigation. Moreover, there was good reason to suggest a relationship between various committees taking adequate account of key risks identified by key stakeholders and risk mitigation. Lastly the results revealed that there was enough evidence supporting a relationship between institution's overall approach to risk management, and its strategic objectives on risk mitigation.

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