GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FORECAST FOR DENIZLI BY USING THE BOX-JENKINS TECHNIQUE

Abstract

Author(s): Mehmet Ali ZDEMIR, Muhammet BAHADIR

In this study, the non-stationary temporal climate series consisting of temperature, vaporization and precipitation series for Denizli were analyzed in accordance with the Box-Jenkins technique. The analysis, which was carried out for Denizli until 2015, determined a positive relationship between temperature, precipitation and vaporization change trends. An increase of 0,3 0C in temperature accompanied by a normal trend of 130 for the vaporization amount and a maximum increase ratio of 220 mm have been predicted. On the other hand, while the change in precipitation amount is insignificant, a decrease of 5 mm is foreseen. The obtained results correspond to the values foreseen for the Mediterranean climate area and support the decrease foreseen in the precipitation in high latitude subtropical areas ( 0.2 0C / 10 years). According to the analysis results, the Denizli area will feel the impact of global warming and have a more arid climate in the future.

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