Author(s): Semra SÜTGİBİ Saadet TEKİN

Climate model estimates based on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios predict that climate change will aggravate water shortages in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. It is stated that the Mediterranean basin which includes our research area is one of the most affected regions by the decrease of precipitation and drought. The well-known characteristics of arid/semi-arid regions such as the Mediterranean basin are short-term changes in precipitation and long-term fluctuations. Therefore, with the changing climate conditions, the tendency to drought in the Mediterranean basin will increase. As a matter of fact, many studies about Turkey support this theory. In our country, the Mediterranean precipitation regime region is one of the regions with the highest variability in precipitation. Precipitation variability is more than 20% in our research area which is in this precipitation regime. While the Ottoman archive files are examined and the long-term precipitation data of Ayd?n and Nazilli meteorological stations are evaluated, it is observed that drought is an important problem in the area. One of the remarkable points of these evaluations is the increase in the frequency of arid conditions, especially after 1985. This shows that water supply in Ayd?n, which is one of the important agricultural areas of our country and whose population is increasing day by day, maybe a big problem in the future


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