DETERMINATION OF SEASONAL CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION IN TRABZON AND RIZE BY MARGINAL AND MATRIX METHODS AND TREND ANALYSIS

Abstract

Author(s): Muhammet BAHADIR AND M. Ali ZDEMR

The purpose of this study was to examine the seasonal precipitation distributions and seasonal trend changes of Trabzon and Rize which are located on the northeast coast of Turkey. The seasonal precipitation trends and annual change trends have been studied by comparison. In the study, the seasonal changes and precipitation distributions have been determined with Matrix and Marginal analysis methods whereas possible future change trends were determined by using the ARIMA model. The center of gravity for each season’s precipitation has been calculated according to the Marginal plot analysis; the convergence value for the total for Trabzon was calculated as 850 mm while the value for Rize was 2200 mm According to the matrix, the total annual precipitation was calculated as 830 mm. This value revealed a 1 mm variation on average from the long year total precipitation average; the accuracy rate of the analsis was calculated as 99%. The annual total precipitation of Rize was calculated as 2235 mm and the accuracy rate was determined as 98%. It has been predicted that the seasonal precipitation change trends in Trabzon and Rize will result in an increase of precipitation for all seasons in Trabzon; with the exception of the standing course of precipitation during winter, an increasing trend will also be observed in Rize.

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