Author(s): İbrahim AKKAŞ• Musa ÖZTÜRK**

In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and GDP in Turkey between the 2001Q3-2014Q3 periods are analysed and it is tested whether export-led growth theory or import-led growth theory is valid for the economic growth realized in this period. Quarterly GDP, exports and imports data for the mentioned period were examined by structral breaks and linear time series analyses. In conclusion;it is seen that the growth of the Turkey’s economy in the period after the central bank earned its independence presents import-led growth theory rather than export-led growth theory and accordingly it is concluded that “the export led growth” strategy aimed by the structural transformation initiated in 1980 was not successful, on the contrary, an import-led growth was realized.


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